Is Hillary Right?
Let me preface this by saying that I voted for Barack Obama in yesterday's Pennsylvania primary because I believe, as he does, that we need to get beyond lapel pins and what somebody's pastor said and talk about the real issues we face. But after Obama's anemic performance, I have to wonder whether Mrs. Clinton has a point.
Obama was strong in the city of Philadelphia and around Harrisburg and State College but not as strong as expected in the Philly suburbs. My county, Montgomery, was, I thought, an Obama stronghold, but he lost to Clinton 51% to 49%. And Obama has continuing problems in the large industrial states with blue collar white men. One commentator said today that this doesn't necessarily mean that those voters will desert the Democrats in the general election, but I have to disagree. Those voters are just the ones who will flip for McCain in a McCain-Obama race. Of course they may do the same in a McCain-Clinton race, but that doesn't seem as likely to me.
It's frightening and amazing to me that we have a reviled Republican President, a presumptive Republican nominee who is unpopular with a large segment of his own party's base, and two very strong Democratic candidates, but the Dems may still manage to blow it once again.
Comments
Its a fascinating conundrum. I really do think core dems with get behind their nominee and core reps will get behind McCain -- its just where will that middle population swing to?
Obama's inability to play well in core anglo-dem demographics is disconcerting -- I think the "elitism" backlash hurt his momentum in PA a ton -- will it be remembered in November? Not sure.
If HRC wrangles the nomination -- a large segment of blacks will likely feel disenfranchised (and could choose to stay home) and if she gets it by superdelegates then many will be rightfully appalled by manipulation of the system and swing to McCain who will hammer her on the hypocrisy of her being "the people's choice".
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j76J9YGO4l8HuW8ljv5569ivlBbwD907MFJ00
The whole thing just gives me agita, I tell you.
I think Clinton's arguments that you can equate primary results with general election results are desperate spin at this point. By and large, Democratic voters will ultimately rally behind the party's nominee either way. These solidly blue "big states" that she has won are not all suddenly in play if Obama is the nominee.
I'm more concerned about Republicans who will never ever in a million years vote for a Clinton. Despite their dislike for McCain (or Bush), I think they'd hold their nose and vote for him. Those are the exact people I think Obama has a good chance of wooing.
I still believe that Clinton will be a magnet for inane and harmful partisan bickering. Obama seems to me to be best chance of being the "uniter" that Dubya laughably claimed to be. People can throw all the "secret Muslim" and Rev. Wright comments at him, but he has tried not to stoop to this idiodic level of discourse.
Mostly, let's hope that McCain continues with his uninspired and uninspiring stump speeches and confusing Sunnis/Shiites and al-Malki/al-Sadr. Honestly, once the Democrats get their shit together, I think he's going to be easier to defeat than we think. Or at least I hope so.
Hey! Superdelegates! What are you friggin' waiting for?
From this side of the Atlantic, we are viewing the carrying-ons in the States with a degree of wariness and suspense and a wonder at how vast the whole enterprise is.
I have spoken with colleagues at work who seem sure that the republicans will win again. This does not bode well, as I am convinced the Tories are going to win here. This of course has left me with flashbacks to the eighties and the Reagan/Thatcher axis. Maybe I'm unduly concerned.
What do people over there think is going to happen? Republican or Democratic President? A lot of people here believe that America is not yet ready for a black president (a bit ironic seeing as it was America who was at the forefront of civil rights, implementing policies that we in the UK took more than a decade to emulate). Again, how do people feel about that in America?
From my somewaht aged and knackered leftist stance I am hoping for a Democratic win, but I have to admit that I believe they will be like our very own New Labour, meaning that they will be Conservative (read Republican) light.
Hopefully, when the general election campaign is finally engaged, things will be different. I think, when given a final choice between the failed Republicans and any Democrat, people will do the right thing.
As columnist Frank Rich said in today's New York Times:
Mr. McCain is not only burdened with the most despised president in his own 71-year lifetime, but he’s getting none of the seasoning that he, no less than the Democrats, needs to compete in the fall. Age is as much an issue as race and gender in this campaign. Mr. McCain will have to prove not merely that he can keep to the physical rigors of his schedule and fend off investigations of his ties to lobbyists and developers. He also must show he can think and speak fluently about the domestic issues that are gripping the country. Picture him debating either Democrat about health care, the mortgage crisis, stagnant middle-class wages, rice rationing at Costco. It’s not pretty.
Another take here. It's certainly going to be interesting.
I seriously hope that you are right. We are very much in a stage where America leads and the rest follow (in our case about ten years later, but what can do you do?)
Thse issues that Frank Rich alludes to (middle-class wages, rice rationing???, health care), do the Democrats have any answers?
Sorry to use you as my American political correspondent...
The Republican strategy since Reagan has been to 'starve the beast', i.e. cut taxes and government revenues, privatize as much as possible, etc., in order to shrink the government while benefitting corporate interests. (I guess Maggie Thatcher was on board with that as well.) They have succeeded in making 'Taxes' a dirty word for most voters, and candidates, even Dems, have to pander to that. As a whole I think the electorate is just too self absorbed to understand that you get the government and services that you pay for.
And all people seem to care about these days is how much it costs to fill up their cars. In response to Clinton and McCain's proposal to temporarily suspend Federal Fuel taxes to bring down the price of gasoline, Obama at least had the courage yesterday to say that cheap gas is not necessarly a good thing for the environment or for energy independence. I expect that will cost him a few points in the polls, though.
So while not perfect, I think the Democrats are orders of magnitude better than the Republicans on domestic issues and certainly as far as foreign policy goes. I think the real problem is that American voters just live in a fantasy world and will vote for anyone who helps them avoid facing up the the hard truths.
By the way, have you read Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine"? I wrote a little about it in this post. She talks a lot about Thatcher breaking the coal miners as part of the Reagan/Thatcher economic strategy.